Predicting Politics by Bruce Bueno de MesquitaTo predict likely policy developments around the world over the next thirty years, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita uses game theoretic models as described in Predicting Politics. The tools used in this book have found wide application in business and in the development of significant American foreign policy initiatives over the years. The author uses data from 1948 to show the ability of models to predict the end of the Cold War. He then turns to data from 1980 for about one hundred countries and simulates future states of the world, especially with regard to further democratization. In the process he shows strong evidence that the burst of democratization that occurred at the end of the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s was predictable based on replicable data known in 1980. While delving into rather gloomy predictions about likely developments in Russia and Chinas domestic affairs, he offers a novel explanation for the failure of Russia to attract more investment and to achieve the higher growth rates commonly associated with democratic government. Although Russia is certainly more democratic in an absolute sense today than it was in 1980, it has fallen farther behind the rest of the world in terms of democratization and so lacks the comparative advantages of property rights, rule of law, and transparent governance that are essential for attracting investment. Bueno de Mesquita shows how policy situations and game theoretical analyses can explain the past, illuminate the present, and forecast future events. At the same time he provides the tools necessary for others to create their own rigorous estimates of future foreign policies.
BOG 2016 - Lecture by Prof. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 2016 Honorary Doctorate Recipient
Bruce is a famous math professor who uses a computerized game theory model to make accurate political predictions. Though controversial in the academic world, Bueno de Mesquita and his model have proven quite popular in the private sector. Most projects involve multiple issues. That tool is the model. World governments are set to meet this December in Copenhagen to commit to firm CO2-reduction levels—but when Bueno de Mesquita modeled the future of these targets, most countries renege on them. No democratic government will seriously limit CO2 if it will hurt its citizens economically. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has a spreadsheet included almost 90 players.
What path will an climate agreement go down? By Alex Pashley. But might their negotiating positions be so ingrained that the nature of a deal can be predicted before a single air mile is accumulated? How salient is the issue of loss and damage — or climate compensation — for cyclone-menaced AOSIS, for example? And what clout can it exert over other countries? Its 13 questions break down issues like climate finance, review cycles to deepen emissions cuts and differentiation between the responsibilities of rich and poor countries.
You can read other posts in the series here , and the TED site will release video from the talk in the coming weeks or months. Please feel free to use the comments thread on this post to offer corrections. You may also want to follow the conference via Twitter or through other blogs tagged as TED on Technorati. Bruce Bueno De Mesquita can predict the future. His work is rooted in game theory, which means math has come to politics, he warns us.
Nextbigfuture previously looked at Bruce Bueno de Mesquita's predictions on Iran and his method of prediction. Bruce is a famous math.
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